Rants

Iran Will be Bombed

I think it is a foregone conclusion that Iran will be bombed.

I had an interesting discussion this afternoon with someone who is well-informed about the region, and much more of an insider than I am.  He was considerably less certain about it than me, and I respect his opinion.  However, barring last-minute changes of plan, I do think the Rubicon has been crossed, for these reasons:

• TIME magazine is already trailing the attack.  I don’t have a particularly high opinion of TIME as a forecasting device, nor do I know much about the motivation of author Robert Baer, himself a  former CIA officer and the inspiration for the film Syriana.  Is the piece mere sabre-rattling or impartial and shrewd analysis?  I can’t tell: the two are not necessarily mutually incompatible.  At the very least, it is suggestive.

• The propaganda campaign intensifies.  Fox News, of course, leads the charge, and as the semi-official media mouthpiece of the White House, any change in stance or focus is significant. The recent and very bellicose interview with John Bolton is noteworthy, the branding of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as terrorists is also portentous and paves the way for Geneva Convention waivers in any coming conflict.

• There are reports that the Department of Defense is currently going to tender for reconstruction costs, post-attack.

• French President Nicolas Sarkozy was widely misunderstood today (allegedly calling for “the bombing of Iran” in preference to “an Iranian bomb”).  In fact, he does not advocate bombing Iran, but, as Radio Free Europe points out, “the mere fact that he brought up the possibility of military intervention and that he advocated stronger sanctions against Tehran, was a departure from the tone and policy of his predecessor, Jacques Chirac.”.  Again, I find the timing significant and Sarkozy’s coded words are hardly disapproving of any projected military action.

All this is very disturbing.  We cannot bomb our way out of harm’s way with Iran any more than we can bomb Iraq into democracy.  Nor can we stop the spread of nuclear weapons to the third world unless the West is prepared to give up its stockpile, too.

But as long as politics remains primarily the most addictive power game in the casino, the outlook remains bleak.

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